{"date":"2026-08-15","questions":[{"id":"vJd27gJ2ZBWTBU8v8Qke","text":"Will the United States and Iran announce a ceasefire before Aug 26?","category":"World","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2FvJd27gJ2ZBWTBU8v8Qke.png?alt=media&token=8370c8ce-e204-4912-8603-195c26750bb0","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-26T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":22.2,"communityNoPercent":77.8,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"Transit through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill on Aug 14 after two more commercial ships were attacked in the waterway. The United States said the same day that it can maintain its naval blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters the U.S. military can hold its regional naval presence in place for as long as the mission requires. Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said Tehran alone will decide when the strait opens or closes and that the closure continues until Washington accepts what he called its strategic defeat. President Trump said on Aug 14 that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States; Iran's military publicly rejected his claim of control over the waterway as false. Ceasefire contacts between the two governments have been deadlocked for several weeks. The Pacific-based aircraft carrier USS George Washington has begun moving toward the Middle East. About a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes through Hormuz, so the closure reaches well past the two countries involved: shipping rates, crude prices and insurance costs for the Gulf all move with it, and several Gulf states have been pressing for mediation. Oman has hosted indirect contacts through the summer. A ceasefire here would mean a formal, announced halt to hostilities between the two governments, not a pause in a single theater. This question resolves on whether the United States and Iran jointly or separately announce a ceasefire, as reported by Reuters or the Associated Press, on or before Aug 25. Sources: Al Jazeera · Reuters.","contextURL":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/14/us-threatens-indefinite-blockade-against-iran-how-long-can-it-last","contextSourceName":"Al Jazeera","contextSourceDate":"2026-08-14"},{"id":"wPtoIf2fymrY7SOH8UYD","text":"Will Trump name a new White House press secretary before Aug 29?","category":"Politics","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2FwPtoIf2fymrY7SOH8UYD.png?alt=media&token=c9e21dab-0aed-40fa-adda-8a6b9ad9046d","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":88.9,"communityNoPercent":11.1,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"Karoline Leavitt announced on Aug 12 that she is stepping down as White House press secretary at the end of August. Leavitt, 28, was the youngest person ever to hold the job and has run the briefing room since January 2025. She said she is leaving to spend more time with her family following the birth of her second child in May, and is expected to stay on as an outside adviser to President Trump. No successor has been named. The names circulating in reporting by CNN and The Hill include Alina Habba, Trump's former defense attorney and former acting U.S. attorney for New Jersey; Anna Kelly, the principal deputy press secretary and one of a small number of staffers authorized to speak as a surrogate; the commentator Scott Jennings; and Katie Miller, wife of deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. The press secretary is one of the most visible jobs in any administration — the daily public voice of the White House and, in this administration, a frequent combatant with the press corps — so the pick signals how the White House intends to handle coverage into the midterm year. Past transitions have run from same-week announcements to gaps of several weeks in which a deputy handles briefings. Leavitt's last day is at the end of the month. This question resolves YES if the White House publicly names her successor, in an official announcement or a statement confirmed by the Associated Press or Reuters, on or before Aug 28. Sources: CNN · NBC News.","contextURL":"https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/13/politics/karoline-leavitt-potential-replacements","contextSourceName":"CNN","contextSourceDate":"2026-08-13"},{"id":"t3dxuFB7Ilv5A59I5OGk","text":"Scottie Scheffler took a three-shot lead into the weekend. Can he win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?","category":"Sports","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2Ft3dxuFB7Ilv5A59I5OGk.png?alt=media&token=42fc9d8b-af2b-4516-888e-23d6018c378f","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-17T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":88.9,"communityNoPercent":11.1,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"Scottie Scheffler shot a 9-under 61 on Aug 14 at TPC Southwind in Memphis to tie the course record and take a three-shot lead at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the opening event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs. He opened the round with five straight birdies and finished with 11 birdies, two bogeys and five pars, reaching 11 under for the tournament. It was the fourth round of 61 or better of his PGA Tour career. Viktor Hovland, who shot a 6-under 64, and Sungjae Im are tied for second at 8 under. Ludvig Aberg is four back at 7 under. Rory McIlroy is also in the field. Scheffler entered the week atop the FedEx Cup standings. The playoffs run three events: this week in Memphis, the BMW Championship at Bellerive from Aug 18-23, and the Tour Championship, with the field cut at each stage. A win here would give Scheffler the points lead into Bellerive and the seeding advantage that comes with it. TPC Southwind is a 7,243-yard par 70 where scoring has run low all week, which cuts both ways for a leader: a three-shot cushion is worth less on a course where the field is making birdies. Third round play is Saturday and the final round is Sunday, Aug 16. The question resolves on the official PGA Tour result at the end of play Sunday, including any playoff. Sources: CBS Sports · Yahoo Sports.","contextURL":"https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/st-jude-championship-leaderboard-2026-live-updates-fedex-cup-playoffs-round-2/live/","contextSourceName":"CBS Sports","contextSourceDate":"2026-08-14"},{"id":"aaMYlJ4FN3Kq3C12tujq","text":"SpaceX just climbed back above its $135 IPO price. Will the stock close above $150 before Aug 21?","category":"Markets","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2FaaMYlJ4FN3Kq3C12tujq.png?alt=media&token=f173b638-9f00-44f3-9b6c-5e9677c19579","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-21T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":22.2,"communityNoPercent":77.8,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 a share, the largest U.S. listing of 2026. The stock fell as low as $104 over the following weeks, then recovered: on Aug 12 it closed above its IPO price for the first time since the slide, and it has traded in the $140s since. Two events drove the turn. The company's first lock-up expired on Aug 6, freeing more than 900 million insider shares — more than the 639 million sold in the IPO itself — and the wave of selling many investors expected did not materialize; the stock rose 6% that day. Then came the company's first earnings report as a public company: second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% from a year earlier and ahead of the $6.81 billion analysts expected, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion against a net loss of $541 million. The connectivity segment brought in $4.3 billion and added 1.7 million net subscribers; the AI segment grew 247% year over year to $2.6 billion. Elon Musk moved the company's internal target for $1 trillion in annual revenue forward from 2031 to 2030 and pointed to a $100 billion annualized run rate by the end of 2026. Analyst price targets span a wide range, from Mizuho at $200 to Morgan Stanley at $300, with both firms flagging further lock-up expirations and margin pressure from AI capital spending. The stock's 52-week range runs from $104.83 to $225.64. This question resolves on the Nasdaq closing price for SPCX on any trading day from Aug 17 through Aug 20. Sources: The Motley Fool · CNN Business.","contextURL":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/14/spacex-stock-climbs-back-above-its-135-ipo-price-h/","contextSourceName":"The Motley Fool","contextSourceDate":"2026-08-14"},{"id":"9QoqReZ82qGezIZAqIyF","text":"An FDA panel voted 9-3 against it. Does the FDA approve Capricor's Duchenne therapy anyway by Aug 22?","category":"Discovery","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2F9QoqReZ82qGezIZAqIyF.png?alt=media&token=1658b72a-927f-42a4-8190-8a74c35187c1","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-24T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":11.1,"communityNoPercent":88.9,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"The Food and Drug Administration faces an Aug 22 deadline to decide on deramiocel, a cell therapy from Capricor Therapeutics for the heart disease that develops in people with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Duchenne is an inherited disorder that progressively weakens muscle; cardiomyopathy, the weakening of the heart muscle, is now the leading cause of death for people who have it, and no therapy is approved specifically for it. Deramiocel is made from cardiosphere-derived cells and given by infusion. The application has been through one full cycle already: the FDA issued a complete response letter turning it down, then lifted that letter and resumed its review after Capricor submitted new data from its ongoing Phase 3 HOPE-3 trial. On July 29 the agency's Cellular, Tissue and Gene Therapies Advisory Committee voted 9-3 that the evidence does not establish substantial effectiveness. Advisory committee votes are recommendations; the FDA is not bound by them, though it follows them in most cases. Deramiocel is one of five FDA decisions falling inside a 23-day window this month, alongside an mRNA influenza vaccine, an oral myeloma therapy, a single-tablet HIV regimen and a radiopharmaceutical. For families in the Duchenne community, an approval would be the first therapy cleared for the cardiac side of the disease; a rejection sends Capricor back to trial data. The FDA's target action date is Aug 22, and the outcome is announced by the agency and in a company filing. Sources: BioPharma Dive · NeurologyLive.","contextURL":"https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/capricor-fda-vote-deramiocel-duchenne-cardiomyopathy/826465/","contextSourceName":"BioPharma Dive","contextSourceDate":"2026-07-29"},{"id":"h6ClneHmQS9PqIarrmwR","text":"Slipknot posted that Sid Wilson was out, then deleted it. Will Wilson address his exit publicly before Aug 22?","category":"Culture","imageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/autopilot-art%2Fquestions%2Fh6ClneHmQS9PqIarrmwR.png?alt=media&token=d7945f63-6f6c-481f-a2f9-9c9b3bfabc07","publishDate":"2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z","estimatedResolutionDate":"2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z","communityYesPercent":77.8,"communityNoPercent":22.2,"isResolved":false,"isVoided":false,"revealHeadline":null,"contextBlurb":"Slipknot posted a statement to its social accounts on Aug 14 reading, \"Effective immediately, Slipknot will no longer be associated with Sid Wilson. We wish him the best with his future endeavours.\" The post was taken down across the band's channels a short time later, with no reason given for the departure and no replacement named. Fan accounts had already screenshotted it. Wilson, known as DJ Starscream, joined the Iowa band in 1998 and was its turntablist for 28 years across every album and tour. The story did not begin with the post: TMZ reported on July 31 that Wilson had been fired, and Blabbermouth reported on Aug 3 that the split had been building for some time and that the band lost control of its own announcement timing once TMZ ran the story first. TMZ photographed Wilson in public on Aug 2 and reported that he had said nothing publicly about the situation. He has stayed silent since — no statement, no post, no interview — through two weeks of reporting and now through the band's own confirmation and deletion. Slipknot is one of the biggest metal acts in the world and has been through public lineup changes before, including the 2019 departure of percussionist Chris Fehn, which ended in litigation. The band has tour dates on its 2026 calendar. This question resolves YES if Wilson or a representative makes a public statement about his exit — a social post, an interview, or a statement to a named outlet — reported by Rolling Stone, Kerrang!, TMZ or Consequence on or before Aug 21. Sources: Rolling Stone · Kerrang!.","contextURL":"https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/slipknot-sid-wilson-part-ways-1235602008/","contextSourceName":"Rolling Stone","contextSourceDate":"2026-08-14"}],"headlineImageURL":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/predict-6.firebasestorage.app/o/headline-art%2F2026-08-15-cf8d8b67-2311-4af1-8b4b-eda94dcee376.jpg?alt=media&token=bc3597b2-d761-4b0b-8011-05af871dfd37"}